Re: Never flat call with Aces

Now, “Never” is a problematic word in Poker. If you never take a certain action, you become predictable, and end up sawing into the tree branch that you’re sitting on.

My second argument for the evening: Villain makes a standard raise from the button. It’s either a steal or a value raise. We don’t know. We do know, that for now, I hold the boss hand.

Preflop I can beat every hand he may hold, unless he holds pocket Aces himself. So at this point I really don’t have to worry about his range, I just have to make a plan for what’s next.

I can three bet. Then I should expect him to fold a large part of his range: Most suited connectors, small Aces, small pocket pairs. I would win 450 for that effort.

Donk betting the Flop is probably okay, and I can see a case for just going all-in, since I’m pretty much committed anyway with 1,020 left in my stack.

My plan though, is to have a flop and then checkraise him. If he has anything but a very strong hand, he will most likely lead if I show weakness, so this is a good opportunity to unload him some of his money.

Flop comes [Qh7h3s].

It’s a good flop. Not that it matters now.

The pot is 650, I make the check and he snap bets all-in. Okay, so that particular move wasn’t in my plan, but the glass is definately still half full.

Now the pot is 650+1,020 = 1,670 and I have to call 1,020. Pot odds are 60% 1,6:1

There are 3 possible sets, 3 possible two pair hands and one AA. I can beat none of those hands.
There are a number of possible draws: AK, AJ, AT, KJ, KT, T9, 98

POST EDIT: Forgot to add AQ, KQ to the mix, but the numbers shouldn’t change much.

Against this range, I’m about 80% or 4:1 to win.
8/10 times I win 1,670. Average win = 1,336
2/10 times I lose 1,020. Average loss = -204

EV(call): 1,336-204 = 1,132
EV(fold): 0 (But I do get to keep my stack of course).

I call.